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cryptoonlinegames| ETF Daily: The semiconductor cycle is gradually bottoming out, and large funds have significantly accelerated their support for domestic substitution. Focus on chip ETFs, semiconductor equipment ETFs and integrated circuit ETFs

Author:editor|Category:Animals

  2024cryptoonlinegames.5cryptoonlinegames.27

  今天A股迎来反弹cryptoonlinegames,上证指数收涨1.14%报3124.04点cryptoonlinegames,创业板指涨0.68%。市场成交额7785.5亿元。行业板块方面,电子、煤炭、交运领涨,建材、房地产下跌。全市场近3400只个股上涨。

  早上国家统计局发布的数据显示,2024年1至4月,中国全国规模以上工业企业累计实现利润总额为20946.9亿元,同比增长4.3%。

  4月份单月数据显示,规模以上工业企业的利润同比增长4.0%,此前3月同比下降3.5%。随着市场需求持续恢复,工业生产增长加快,产品出厂价格降幅收窄,产销衔接水平提升,共同推动企业营收改善。整体来看,国内经济仍处在企稳修复的趋势中。

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  今天半导体芯片产业链迎来全面爆发,主要是由于消息面,国家大基金三期正式成立。此前路透社于2023年9月5日报道称大基金三期正在筹备,计划融资约3000亿元。本次根据天眼查信息,国家大基金三期(国家集成电路产业投资基金三期股份有限公司)于5月24日正式成立,注册资本达3440亿元人民币。

  来源:天眼查

  大基金一期在2014年9月设立,注册资本987亿元,撬动社会资金超5000亿元,地方子基金规模超3000亿元;大基金二期于2019年10月落地,注册资本2041亿元,撬动近6000亿元规模的社会资金。

  大基金三期注册资本达3440亿元人民币,超过前两期之和,通过地方政府、社会资本、企业自身现金流和银团信贷的多轮杠杆,有望撬动超过1万亿的投资额,按照5年投资周期,预估每年投入到先进集成电路制造环节的资金量有望达到2000亿元。

  从投向上来看,大基金一期投资以制造、设计为主线,制造、设计领域占比分别为67%和17%。大基金二期除了继续支持晶圆制造外,还向设备、材料等环节倾斜,包括在刻蚀机、薄膜设备、测试设备和清洗设备等领域已布局企业保持高强度持续支持,加快开展光刻机等核心设备投资布局。

cryptoonlinegames| ETF Daily: The semiconductor cycle is gradually bottoming out, and large funds have significantly accelerated their support for domestic substitution. Focus on chip ETFs, semiconductor equipment ETFs and integrated circuit ETFs

  大基金等国内各项政策支持下,目前半导体芯片主要设备、材料、软件和基础晶圆厂生态已经初步形成,未来大基金三期的主要投资方向可能主要面向先进晶圆制造、先进封装和卡脖子设备、材料等。另外,随着人工智能大模型快速发展,算力芯片和存储芯片也可能成为支持重点。

  总体来说,随着全球市场供需格局改善,半导体芯片周期逐步走出底部。而大基金加持下国产替代将会显著加速,可以关注芯片ETF(512760)、半导体设备ETF(159516)和集成电路ETF(159546)的投资机会。

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  旺季行情预期和高股息逻辑下,煤炭板块今天也迎来大涨。上周国网能源研究院发布《中国电力供需分析报告2024》,预测2024年全社会用电量将达到9.8万亿千瓦时,同比+6.5%左右。

  同时国网能源研究院预计迎峰度夏期间,全国大部分地区气温较常年同期偏高,极端天气气候事件偏多。除此之外,中电联预计,2024年全国统调最高用电负荷将达到14.5亿千瓦,同比+7.4%。

  去年6-10月,秦皇岛港口5500大卡动力煤最高价格为1023元/吨;当前煤炭行业供给、库存均低于2023年同期,预计本轮季节性上涨最高点有望突破1000元/吨。后续夏季用电高峰来临,可以持续关注电厂日耗及煤价变化情况。

  市场震荡行情中,依然可以关注高股息煤炭板块的投资机会。目前中证煤炭指数股息率6.64%,在国内低利率环境持续的情况下,煤炭板块进可攻、退可守,配置价值依然值得重视,可以关注煤炭ETF(515220)以及重仓煤炭行业的红利国企ETF(510720)等。

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  除上述板块外,今天上涨1.94%的交运ETF(561320)中同样含有部分高股息成分股,这也是板块年初以来上涨超14%的原因之一。

  来源:Wind

  消息面上,近日12306官网发布调价公告称,2024年6月15日起,京广高铁武广段、沪昆高铁沪杭段、沪昆高铁杭长段和杭深铁路杭甬段4条热门高铁线路票价拟涨,涨幅最高达20%。此次提价有望打开高铁的盈利上行空间,以公用事业为代表的红利资产或将迎来价值重塑。

  航运方面,近期多条航线运力紧张,集运价格整体推涨。上周,宁波出口集装箱运价指数环比上涨7.4%,21条航线中有20条航线运价指数上涨。红海地缘冲突短期内难以结束,对航运板块的影响或将持续。根据国家邮政局数据,2024年1-4月快递业务量累计完成508.1亿件,同比增长24.5%。2024年以来件量表现高于预期,行业保持较快增长,叠加快递新规等政策发布,加速推动行业进入高质量发展阶段。

  今年暑运,旅客长线出境游意愿依旧高涨。预计在各地中高考结束后,民航市场将逐步迎来今年的暑运旺季,届时国内及国际出游需求将进一步回升。中长期看行业恢复趋势向好,随着国际航线的持续恢复,全行业供需格局有望持续改善,各航司飞机利用率有望持续上行,叠加票价市场化改革利好,航空公司的业绩表现有望持续改善。可以关注交运ETF(561320)的投资机会。

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The gold equity ETF (517400) rose 1.87% today. According to the latest data, the U.S. CPI in April was 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, which were lower than the previous values of 0.4% and 3.5% respectively. Core CPI increased by 3.6% year-on-year, unchanged from expectations and lower than the previous value of 3.8%. In April, U.S. inflation returned to a cooling trend. Coupled with the rise in U.S. unemployment in April, economic data weakened, the driving force of real interest rates on gold prices is expected to strengthen again.

The recent correction in gold prices is likely to reflect the impact caused by the postponement of the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut. There are certain twists and turns in the pace of interest rate cuts, but interest rate cuts during the year are still a high probability event. The positive trend for gold prices caused by generous upward easing + rolling economic downturn remains unchanged. The early adjustment of gold prices may have gradually ended, and subsequent interest rates by the Federal Reserve will support the gold price. In addition to expectations of interest rate cuts, due to factors such as geopolitical risks, gold prices in the future may maintain a volatile upward trend.

The pace of gold purchases by central banks around the world is still continuing, and the gold pricing center is expected to rise. In addition, in the context of the global trend of de-dollarization and the Federal Reserve's frequent adjustments in monetary policy, demand for gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset and value store, is expected to continue to increase. Consider deploying gold fund ETF (518800) on dips. For small partners with higher risk appetite, you can focus on gold stock ETF (517400), which is relatively more flexible. Contributing author: Guotai Fund

27 05

2024-05-27 19:13:43

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