bream|新凤鸣(603225)：业绩持续修复 看好行业景气提升

Event description the company released its quarterly report of 2024, realizing operating income of 144,Bream.500 million yuan (year-on-year + 15.5%, month-on-month-16.3%), achieve attributable net profit of 280 million yuan (year-on-year + 45.2%, month-on-month + 38.0%), and realize attribution deduction of non-net profit of 230 million yuan (year-on-year + 103.0%, month-on-month + 41.1%). The production and sales of event reviews increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the benefits were repaired. In terms of filament production and marketing, the company's production and sales of polyester filament and staple fiber increased significantly in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the same period last year. The output of POY, FDY and DTY was 129.2, 36.7 and 191000 tons respectively, which was + 35.6%, + 17.8% and + 13.5% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the sales volume was 108.2, 32.7 and 169000 tons respectively compared with the same period last year. Affected by the Spring Festival, 2024Q1 filament sales fell slightly compared with 2023Q4, POY, FDY, DTY sales were-18.4%,-13.6%,-23.9%. In terms of benefits, the first quarter benefited from the impact of almost unilateral rise in oil prices, polyester filament price difference (considering raw material lag) increased month-on-month, according to the China Fiber Network, the POY-PXMEG price difference in the first quarter of 2024 (considering the 14-day lag of raw materials) was about 1319 yuan / ton, a month-on-month increase of 107 yuan / ton. It is optimistic that the supply and demand pattern of polyester filament will be optimized and the prosperity will be improved. Demand sideBreamThe apparent consumption of domestic polyester filament increased from 21.17 million tons in 2014 to 43.05 million tons in 2023, with a compound growth rate of 8.2%. As the largest category of chemical fiber, polyester has excellent properties such as high elasticity, wear resistance and heat resistance. and the price is more obvious than the traditional natural fiber such as cotton, and the application of imitation cotton and wool continues to expand, and the proportion is increasing year by year. Overseas clothing inventory has experienced a long process of elimination, which is expected to usher in the replenishment cycle, leading to the improvement of upstream fabric demand. Supply side: the industry has hit bottom in the past two years, with an annual production capacity of nearly 3 million tons. According to our statistics, the net new production capacity of the polyester filament industry in 2024 is only about 410000 tons, accounting for about 0.8% of the total domestic polyester filament production capacity, and the supply increment is extremely limited; there is some new production capacity in the polyester filament industry in 2025, but the capacity expansion is orderly, the supply pressure is not too great, and the tight pattern of supply and demand is expected to continue, at least there is no significant surplus. In the medium to long term, the leading capital expenditure turns to overseas refining and chemical industry, and the expansion of domestic polyester filament is expected to continue to slow down. We are optimistic that the supply and demand of polyester filament will be improved and the industry will usher in an upward cycle. The layout of overseas refinery and chemical industry is excellent in growth. In June 2023, the company announced that it planned to launch the Taikun Petrochemical Indonesia Refining and Chemical Integration Project, with a total investment of US $8.6 billion, a scale of 1600 million tons per year, a production capacity of 5.2 million tons per year for p-xylene (PX) and 800,000 tons per year for ethylene. The prospect of overseas layout refinement is broad, opening up the company's long-term development space. Maintain a "buy" rating. The company is a leading domestic polyester filament enterprise, with significant scale advantages, and is expected to benefit from polyester filament prosperity, great flexibility, overseas refining and chemical layout, and broad space in the future. The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating with a net profit of 18.5,26.1 and 3.08 billion yuan respectively from 2024 to 2026. Risk tips 1, clothing demand is not as expected; 2, crude oil prices fluctuate sharply. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.